I'm going to deviate a bit from the corporate technology theme. The uneasiness on Wall Street (and increasingly Main Street) is generating debate and angst among managers and leaders. Some predictions for 2008 and beyond on how the global economy and markets will evolve.. and implications for consumers and producers.
1. Dow 11000. The DJI will spend a good chunk of time this year in the 11K range. Other indices will show similar impacts including several foreign bourses. Expect 2009 to end with the Dow flirting with 14000 again.
2. US Dollar. The news on the dollar will be better sooner than it will be for the stock markets. The first half of 2008 will show the continuing decline of the USD against the Euro and other currencies that we have seen in the last 18 month. The next Fed rate cut will result in a spiky drop and then the rate of decline will start slows. Expect a bottom against the Euro by summertime and then range bound sideways trading for a bit.
3. BRIC Currencies will continue to show strength against the dollar. This reflects the structural adjustment to the global economy with these economies growing in size, trade, etc. However the secular trend for appreciation of these currencies will be significantly more gradual, and in some cases volatile, across the next 18 months.
..and to come this week -
4. Real Estate : Start with this paper: http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/rogoff/files/Is_The_US_Subprime_Crisis_So_Different.pdf
5. Food Prices
Thursday, January 17, 2008
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